I am sorry. I can not help, I have to put in my two pennies worth. The more I watch this damn war, the more I wonder. I try to use European news outlets, and verified news, simply because there is a lot of propaganda and plain disinformation around.
Putin’s war does not go according to plan. If it is correct what I read in a German news outlet (n-tv) that the Russians already lost close to 200 tanks, then this is a frightening number. I saw pictures of Russian tanks with self made, improvised constructions over the turret. This indicates that they faced Javelin anti tank rockets, pretty modern, sophisticated, and, well, useful. (The idea of this weapon is not to hit a tank frontal, but from above, preferably into the turret, where the fortification is notably weaker.)
Then I saw (and read) about difficulties of the advancing army regarding fuel, and lousy communications.
The fact that Russia agreed to some kind of negotiations implies imho that they need time to regroup, time to pump more weapons and troops into the country. It seems to me that they simply miscalculated how fast they could advance, and – what is more important – did not care in foresight.
They either really thought this would be a kind of promenade to Kiew, or it was simply very bad planning. The Ukrainian forces (I have no idea how large this force is, what they actually have) is basically a remnant of the old Red Army. So these officers know exactly what they face. They should know their enemy very well, and I do not believe that they simply sad idle since 2014, when Vlad grabbed a part of Ukraine. And it is their land. All in all they do a formidable job, and they have a good chance to, at least, stop the invasion. To throw the invaders out is another thing.
The longer this whole stupid war lasts, the worse Vlad’s inner-Russian situation. If what is left of the Russian civil society fully understands what is going on, there may be a chance. Even Vlad can not turn the whole of Russia into a graveyard, he is no Stalin – despite the fact that this is what he craves to be.
There is a right side, and a wrong side – and in few situations in history it was so clear. And those people who cheer for Vlad, be it Serbian nationalists who demonstrated today and yelled support for their hero, be it members of the German parliament (of the fascist party, who else ?, who had the nerve to say that our chancellor would “herbeireden” a new “cold war”, goodness !), or “politicians” of the “Republican” party in the US (who blab about “Biden’s weakness enabling this war”) – those right-wing, and in part openly fascist people, are scum.
And again, I already said it here, I am glad that the former “president” of the US is not at the helm, the guy who said NATO must be abandoned, the guy who kissed Putin’s arse openly, the guy whose election was helped by Russian interference, comrade Trumpsky.
We Europeans have two years to built an European force. We must do this, because the chance is very likely that in two years either the swine returns, or a younger version of the traitor sits in the White House. It is still absolutely correct what MERKEL said – the US are no reliable partner any more. We need a European army that protects our Eastern (and Northern) border. We must make clear to an aggressive Eastern neighbour that any kind of invasion is suicide.
There is no way back, there is no escape.